| Date | Axis | Event | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 | Event | Tesla and Alphabet earnings spark Magnificent Seven selloff; Tesla stock drops 15% from recent highs. (via foxbusiness.com) | 30% |
| 07-27 | Expectations | Tesla reports record Q2 revenue and deliveries, but stock sells off due to concerns over brand sentiment and capex. (via finance.yahoo.com) | 30% |
| 07-30 | Flow | Cathie Wood buys $53.5 million of Tesla stock after post-earnings sell-off, signaling confidence in rebound. (via fool.com) | 20% |
| 07-31 | Event | META outperforms TSLA in July; analyst notes TSLA underperformed despite earnings beat. (via es.tradingview.com) | 10% |
| Candidate | Evidence | Counter | Confidence | Persistence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings beat but stock sold off due to Musk's political ties and high capex for robotaxi. | Record sales reported, but stock fell 2.08% on 07-27; article mentions concerns over brand sentiment and capex. | Some analysts see rebound potential; Cathie Wood buying dip suggests value. | high | Short-term negative sentiment may persist until robotaxi progress or political issues resolve. |
| Sell-off part of broader Magnificent Seven decline after Alphabet and Tesla earnings. | Fox Business article on 07-24 shows market selloff triggered by earnings from these companies. | Other Mag 7 stocks like NVDA and MSFT rose, so not purely sector-wide. | medium | Short-term market reaction, likely to fade. |
| Cathie Wood's purchase indicates institutional confidence, potentially stabilizing stock. | She bought $53.5M on 07-30 after sell-off. | Her track record is mixed; not a guarantee of rebound. | medium | May provide support in near term. |
mixed
| Timing | What to watch |
|---|---|
| Next earnings (Q3 2026) | Robotaxi progress and capex impact on margins; delivery growth. |
| Ongoing | Elon Musk's political activities and brand sentiment. |
| Short-term | Any further insider or major investor buying/selling. |